Read: 759
Welcome to CBRE's Mid-Year Review of the 2024 China Real Estate Market Outlook; an evaluation that delves into how our predictions at the beginning of the year compare agnst actual outcomes, highlighting successes and missed forecasts.
Economically, we saw a solid growth rate of 5.0 in Gross Domestic Product GDP for the first half of the year, driven by resilient exports and a rebound in manufacturing investment. Yet, domestic consumption continues to lag behind expectations, with retl sales advancing at a pace of just 3.7 over the same period and witnessing even slower growth of only 2.0 in June. Adjusting our full-year forecast for China's GDP accordingly, we now project it to reach approximately 4.9, acknowledging that insufficient domestic demand presents a significant obstacle for the short-term momentum.
In terms of office space occupancy, companies remn focused on cost as their primary concern. Our revised projection for national net absorption reflects an anticipated slowdown in demand, leading us to predict a 25 decrease compared to our forecast from January 2024. Landlords are expected to mntn their flexibility concerning lease terms given the market's tenant-frily conditions.
Our logistics market assessment has shown remarkable accuracy thus far, with activity sustned by cross-border e-commerce platforms. However, aside from Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Huizhou - which face severe undersupply issues - we've adjusted our rental forecasts for all major markets downward. While lower rents may impact these cities' attractiveness to logistics providers, manufacturing firms, and retlers, they are anticipated to capture upgrading demand due to the oversupply issue.
The retl sector has experienced a slowdown in sales growth for leading brands, with FB expansion cooling off and mounting competition from specialty properties contributing to this decline. Consequently, we have adjusted our forecast for net absorption in 2024 downward, estimating it at levels similar to those seen in 2023.
Taking into account the soft market conditions and investors' prudent approach towards asset revaluation, we now project a significant decrease of between 5-10 for China's full-year investment volume compared to low-yield growth expectations of 0-5. Opting for greater risk mitigation strategies will continue to be favored by investors as they seek safety margins.
This review represents CBRE's ongoing commitment to understanding the dynamic Chinese real estate market and adapting forecasts based on observed outcomes.
This article is reproduced from: https://www.cbre.com.cn/en/insights/reports/2024-china-real-estate-market-outlook-mid-year-review
Please indicate when reprinting from: https://www.ao08.com/Building_material_prices/China_2024_Real_Estate_Outlook_REView.html
China Real Estate Market Outlook 2024 GDP Growth Rate Prediction Office Space Demand Forecast Logistics Rental Adjustment Retail Sales Slowdown Analysis Investment Volume Decrease Estimate